WikiAnalysis & SimulationDivergence Backtest Strategy

Divergence Backtest Strategy

The Divergence Backtest Strategy is a specialized backtesting mode that simulates trading based on disagreements between PulseGrid's parametric signal and market consensus, rather than PG score thresholds alone.

How It Works

1. The engine scans historical data for periods where PG Signal and Market Signal diverge

2. When PG says Buy but Market says Sell (or vice versa), a trade is initiated following PG's direction

3. The trade is held until the divergence resolves (signals converge) or a stop-loss/take-profit is triggered

4. Performance metrics are computed across all divergence-based trades

Strategy Configuration

ParameterDescriptionDefault
Strategy ModeSelect "Divergence" to enable this modePG Score
Min SeverityMinimum divergence severity to trigger trades (1=minor, 2=moderate, 3=significant)1 (all)
Stop LossMaximum loss per trade before forced exit5%
Take ProfitTarget profit per trade for automatic exit15%
Position SizingHow capital is allocated across positionsScore-weighted

Divergence Analytics Tab

When viewing results from a divergence backtest, a dedicated "Divergence" tab appears with:

  • Total Divergences Detected: How many divergence events occurred in the backtest period
  • Divergences Traded On: How many met the minimum severity threshold
  • Divergence Win Rate: Percentage of divergence-based trades that were profitable
  • Avg Divergence Return: Mean return per divergence trade
  • Breakdown by Severity: Win rate and average return for minor, moderate, and significant divergences
  • Top Divergence Trades: The most notable individual trades with entry details and outcomes

Interpreting Results

A positive divergence win rate above 55% suggests that PG's contrarian signals have genuine predictive value. Compare the divergence strategy's Sharpe ratio against the standard PG Score strategy to determine whether divergence-based trading adds risk-adjusted value.

Validation with Accuracy Tracker

The Accuracy Tracker page provides a complementary view by aggregating divergence outcomes across all instruments without simulating actual trades. Use both tools together for a comprehensive assessment of PG's predictive accuracy.